Assad Fall and its Implications on China's Middle Eastern Policy

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Institute for Security and Progress Studies (ISDS), Tehran, Iran

2 PhD, Tehran Azad University, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran

10.22099/ijas.2025.52763.1032

Abstract

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria, as one of the most important political developments in the Middle East, has had widespread effects on regional and international equations. This issue has faced China, one of the important regional players and Assad's allies, with challenges and has had consequences for Beijing's regional policy. This article, with the hypothesis that the fall of the Assad government will reduce China's influence in the Middle East, but China will use economic and diplomatic tools to try to maintain and even strengthen its position in the region and will seek to establish relations with the new government in Syria to guarantee its economic and security interests in the region, examines the consequences of the fall of the Assad government on China's Middle East policy, analyzes the effects of this development on China's relations with other regional and international players, and answers the question: "What effect does the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government have on China's Middle East policy and its position in regional equations?" The findings suggest that the fall of the Assad regime has reduced China’s influence in Syria and the Middle East, as China influenced Syria through its ties with Russia and Iran. As these allies weaken, China’s role in the region may decline. The presence of Uyghur fighters in Syria and the possibility of their return to China is a threat to China’s domestic security. As a major economic player in the Middle East, China will seek to maintain its influence in the region by investing in Syrian reconstruction projects. China will seek to establish relations with the new government in Syria and may use its experience of engaging with the Taliban in Afghanistan as a model for cooperation with the new Syrian rulers. The fall of Assad may change the balance of power between China, Russia, and the United States in the Middle East, but China will seek to strengthen its position in the region through insularity.

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Iranian Journal of Asian Studies
Volume 1, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
January 2025
Pages 259-284

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