Afghanistan's Place in West Asian Security Equations in the Post-American Era

Introduction
This study examines Afghanistan’s position in the security equations of West Asia, with a particular focus on developments following the withdrawal of United States forces from Afghanistan in 2021. Owing to its sensitive geopolitical location at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, Afghanistan has long played a pivotal role in regional and extra-regional power dynamics. The United States’ withdrawal marked a historical turning point: it created a power vacuum and led to a redefinition of the regional security structure.The main objective of this study is to analyse how the transformation of Afghanistan’s position has affected the security equations of West Asia in the post-US withdrawal period, with particular attention to the active role of regional actors, such as 
Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, as well as extra-regional actors, including Russia and China. The study also seeks to address a gap in the literature on regional security by offering an evidence-based analysis of the implications of this transformation for regional stability.
 
Methods
This research adopts an analytical-descriptive method and draws on the theoretical framework of Regional Security Complex Theory, developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver. This framework makes it possible to analyse reciprocal security linkages and the interdependence of states within a given geographical region. The data required for the study were collected through the examination of documents, reports issued by international institutions, such as the World Bank, and recent domestic and international scholarly sources, particularly those published from 2023 onwards. The study conducts its analysis at three levels: domestic, regional, and extra-regional. It focuses on indicators such as the intensity of competition among actors and changes in the pattern of threats. The central research question is: how has the vacuum created by the United States’ withdrawal affected Afghanistan’s role in the security equations of West Asia?
 
Findings
The findings indicate that the United States’ withdrawal has produced profound changes in the security of Afghanistan and the wider region. At the domestic level, the collapse of the republican system and the return of the Taliban led to the formation of an ideological and centralised form of governance. Although large-scale frontline confrontations declined, networked and dispersed threats increased significantly, particularly those posed by ISIS-Khorasan. In addition, the suspension of international aid and the imposition of sanctions generated an unprecedented economic and humanitarian crisis, severely weakening human security. At the regional level, the power vacuum resulting from the United States’ withdrawal intensified competition among regional actors seeking influence in Afghanistan. Iran has focused on border security and political influence; Pakistan seeks to preserve its strategic depth; and Turkey and Saudi Arabia have employed economic and diplomatic tools to expand their roles. These rivalries have transformed Afghanistan from a potential axis of cooperation into a shared source of concern. Transnational threats, including terrorism, drug trafficking, and irregular migration, have increased and affected the security of neighbouring states.




Volume 3, Issue 1, Spring 2026
 




At the extra-regional level, powers such as Russia and China have adopted pragmatic approaches, expanding their engagement with the Taliban in order to manage threats and benefit from geopolitical opportunities. Russia has emphasised the strengthening of collective-security mechanisms in Central Asia, while China has focused on linking Afghanistan to the Belt and Road Initiative and securing its borders. As a result, Afghanistan has become a new arena of geopolitical competition.
 
Conclusion
This study shows that, in the post-US withdrawal period, Afghanistan has moved from a peripheral position to the centre of security competition and interaction in West Asia. The findings support the hypothesis that the reduction of the United States’ presence has altered the regional balance of power and redefined Afghanistan’s security structure by intensifying competition among actors and changing the pattern of threats. Afghanistan’s security is now inseparably linked to the security of neighbouring countries and to broader regional equations. Accordingly, managing instability and transnational threats emanating from Afghanistan requires regional cooperation and coordination, as well as a realistic understanding of the role played by extra-regional actors. The future stability of West Asia will depend significantly on Afghanistan’s domestic developments and on how different actors engage with those developments. Understanding this interdependence is therefore a necessary condition for analysing future transformations and designing effective security strategies in West Asia.