Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 master student of international relations at shiraz university
2 assistant prof. of political science at shiraz university
Abstract
Geopolitical risk, as one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in the international system, affects the oil market and energy security through its impact on market expectations, transportation costs, and the security of energy transit routes. This study examines the impact of the Israel–Palestine war since October 2023 and the expansion of regional tensions involving Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis on oil price volatility and its implications for energy security in East Asia. The main research question is how this war has affected oil price volatility and whether its consequences have been merely short-term or could, over the long term, influence energy supply policies and the diversification of energy sources and import routes, including in East Asia. The research hypothesis is that geopolitical risk, even in the absence of direct disruptions to production, increases the vulnerability of oil-importing economies, including those in East Asia, by heightening uncertainty regarding the security of supply and transit routes, while also strengthening incentives for diversification and the development of alternative energy sources. The study employs a library and documentary research method and an explanatory-causal analytical approach within a structural framework grounded in offensive realism. It draws on the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and analyzes the data derived from this index. To explain differences in the mechanisms through which geopolitical risk affects the oil market, the Israel–Palestine conflict is comparatively examined alongside the Russia–Ukraine war. The findings indicate that, from 2023 through early 2026, despite heightened geopolitical risks and disruptions in the Red Sea, non-OPEC supply capacity, slower demand growth, and the energy transition have prevented the emergence of widespread and sustained disruptions to global oil supply. Nevertheless, rising transportation costs and concerns over the security of transit routes have increased the importance of energy resilience and diversification. A comparison of the two wars further indicates that the intensity and persistence of the effects of geopolitical risk on the oil market depend on the nature of the crisis, its geographical location, and the extent to which it causes actual disruptions to supply and energy transit routes. The study's novelty lies in linking oil market volatility to energy security, particularly energy security in East Asia, and in comparing the two geopolitical crises in terms of differences in the extent of actual disruptions to energy supply and transit routes.
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