غرب آسیا در سایه دولت ترامپ و برنامه هسته‌ای ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار علوم سیاسی، گروه روابط بین الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

10.22099/ijas.2025.51851.1020

چکیده

نظام بین­الملل طی قرن بیست و یکم بیش از هر دوره­ای با تحولات و مسائل پیچیده روبرو شده است و این مهم برای آسیا بیش از سایر مناطق بوده است. مجموع عواملی چون حمله روسیه به اوکراین، تشدید رویارویی چین با ایالات‌متحده، برآمدن تدریجی بازیگرانی چون هند، پیچیدگی مسائل در غرب آسیا به‌ویژه در بحران غزه، یمن، ظهور دولتی جدید در سوریه، افزایش تنش ایران و اسرائیل و موارد متعدد دیگر فقط بخشی از وضعیت شکننده در آسیا است. در این بین، ظهور مجدد ترامپ، مناطق مختلف آسیا را دستخوش تغییرات جدید خواهد کرد. لذا، این پرسش مطرح می‌شود که سیاست دولت ترامپ در مقابل برنامه هسته­ای ایران در برهه زمانی 2017- 2021 چگونه قابل ارزیابی است و با توجه به پیشینه رفتاری مذکور، سیاست ایالات­متحده در دوران جدید چگونه خواهد بود؟ فرضیه مطروح عبارت است از نوع خاص ادراکات ترامپ، سیاست وی در مقابل برنامه هسته­ای ایران -در هر دو برهه زمانی مذکور- تشدید فشار سیستمی، ائتلاف­سازی، تلاش برای تحقق توافقی متناسب با منافع ایالات متحده و کنترل رفتار سیاسی به‌ویژه در قبال کنشگران همسو است. یافته­های پژوهش نشان می­دهد که ادراکات عمل­گرایانه ترامپ در تضاد با سیاست­های منطقه­ای و بین­المللی ایران قرار دارد و بر اساس سیاستی مستمر به دنبال تغییر رفتار ایران در قبال مسائل منطقه­ای و بین­المللی از طریق افزایش تهدیدات چندلایه (تحریم و فشار اقتصادی)، تضعیف متحدان، تحمیل فشار و هزینه توسط جنگ­های نامتقارن و مینیاتوری و درنهایت، ایجاد ائتلافی منسجم­تر در این راستا و دستیابی به توافقی مبتنی بر منافع آمریکا است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

West Asia in the Shadow of the Trump Administration and Iran's Nuclear Program

نویسنده [English]

  • seyed javad salehi
Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The international system has faced more complex challenges and geopolitical shifts during the 21st century than at any other time, and this has been particularly significant for Asia. A combination of factors—such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the escalating confrontation between China and the United States, the gradual rise of emerging powers like India, the increasing complexity of issues in West Asia (especially the crises in Gaza and Yemen), the emergence of a new government in Syria, the growing tensions between Iran and Israel, and numerous other developments—illustrates the region's fragile geopolitical landscape. Meanwhile, Trump's return to the political stage is expected to bring new changes to various regions of Asia. This raises the key question: How can the Trump administration's policy toward Iran's nuclear program during the 2017–2021 period be assessed, and based on this historical behavior, what direction might U.S. policy take in a new Trump era? The hypothesis proposed is that Trump’s unique strategic perceptions shaped his policy toward Iran’s nuclear program in both periods, emphasizing intensified systemic pressure, coalition-building, efforts to negotiate an agreement aligned with U.S. interests, and controlling political behavior—particularly concerning allied actors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foreign policy
  • West Asia
  • United States
  • Donald Trump
  • Iran's nuclear program

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