پیامدهای سقوط حکومت اسد بر سیاست خاورمیانه‌ای چین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار مطالعات منطقه ای، پژوهشگاه مطالعات امنیت و پیشرفت، تهران، ایران

2 دانش آموخته دکتری تخصصی، دانشگاه آزاد واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران، تهران، ایران

10.22099/ijas.2025.52763.1032

چکیده

سقوط حکومت بشار اسد در سوریه به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین تحولات سیاسی در خاورمیانه، تأثیرات گسترده‌ای بر معادلات منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی داشته است. این موضوع چین را به‌عنوان یکی از بازیگران مهم منطقه‌ای و هم‌پیمانان اسد، با چالش‌هایی روبه‌رو کرده و پیامدهایی را برای سیاست منطقه‌ای پکن به دنبال داشته است. این مقاله با این فرضیه که سقوط حکومت اسد باعث کاهش نفوذ چین در خاورمیانه می‌شود، اما چین با استفاده از ابزارهای اقتصادی و دیپلماتیک تلاش خواهد کرد تا جایگاه خود را در منطقه حفظ و حتی تقویت کرده و به دنبال برقراری روابط با حکومت جدید در سوریه خواهد بود تا منافع اقتصادی و امنیتی خود را در منطقه تضمین کند، به بررسی پیامدهای سقوط حکومت اسد بر سیاست خاورمیانه‌ای چین، تأثیرات این تحول را بر روابط چین با سایر بازیگران منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی تحلیل کرده و به این پرسش پاسخ می‌دهد که «سقوط حکومت بشار اسد چه تأثیری بر سیاست خاورمیانه‌ای چین و جایگاه این کشور در معادلات منطقه‌ای دارد؟» یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که سقوط حکومت اسد باعث کاهش نفوذ چین در سوریه و خاورمیانه شده است؛ زیرا چین از طریق روابط با روسیه و ایران در سوریه نفوذ داشت. با تضعیف این متحدان، نقش چین در منطقه ممکن است کاهش یابد. حضور جنگجویان اویغور در سوریه و احتمال بازگشت آن‌ها به چین، تهدیدی برای امنیت داخلی چین محسوب می‌شود. چین به‌عنوان یک بازیگر اقتصادی مهم در خاورمیانه، تلاش خواهد کرد تا از طریق سرمایه‌گذاری در پروژه‌های بازسازی سوریه، نفوذ خود را در منطقه حفظ کند. چین به دنبال برقراری روابط با حکومت جدید در سوریه خواهد بود و ممکن است از تجربه تعامل با طالبان در افغانستان به‌عنوان الگویی برای همکاری با حاکمان جدید سوریه استفاده کند. سقوط اسد ممکن است موازنه قدرت میان چین، روسیه و آمریکا در خاورمیانه را تغییر دهد، اما چین تلاش خواهد کرد تا از طریق مصون‌سازی، جایگاه خود را در منطقه تقویت کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assad Fall and its Implications on China's Middle Eastern Policy

نویسندگان [English]

  • , Alireza Samoudi Pilehroud 1
  • mohammadreza Mohammadi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Institute for Security and Progress Studies (ISDS), Tehran, Iran
2 PhD, Tehran Azad University, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria, as one of the most important political developments in the Middle East, has had widespread effects on regional and international equations. This issue has faced China, one of the important regional players and Assad's allies, with challenges and has had consequences for Beijing's regional policy. This article, with the hypothesis that the fall of the Assad government will reduce China's influence in the Middle East, but China will use economic and diplomatic tools to try to maintain and even strengthen its position in the region and will seek to establish relations with the new government in Syria to guarantee its economic and security interests in the region, examines the consequences of the fall of the Assad government on China's Middle East policy, analyzes the effects of this development on China's relations with other regional and international players, and answers the question: "What effect does the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government have on China's Middle East policy and its position in regional equations?" The findings suggest that the fall of the Assad regime has reduced China’s influence in Syria and the Middle East, as China influenced Syria through its ties with Russia and Iran. As these allies weaken, China’s role in the region may decline. The presence of Uyghur fighters in Syria and the possibility of their return to China is a threat to China’s domestic security. As a major economic player in the Middle East, China will seek to maintain its influence in the region by investing in Syrian reconstruction projects. China will seek to establish relations with the new government in Syria and may use its experience of engaging with the Taliban in Afghanistan as a model for cooperation with the new Syrian rulers. The fall of Assad may change the balance of power between China, Russia, and the United States in the Middle East, but China will seek to strengthen its position in the region through insularity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • China
  • Syria
  • Balance of Power
  • the Middle East
  • Belt and Road

مراجع

شاهنده، بهزاد (1374). سیاست خاورمیانه‌ای چین با تکیه بر درهای باز، فصلنامه خاورمیانه، 7، 1038-1011.
قنبرلو، عبدالله (1402). کریدور اتصال هند به اروپا و آینده تحولات منطقه، دیده‌بان امنیت ملی، 138، 79-87.
کروبر، آرتور آر. (11 خرداد 1402) چین چگونه چین شد؟ دنیای اقتصاد، 43-57، اخذ شده در 27 آذر 1402 از: https://donya-e-eqtesad.com/fa/tiny/news-3972652.
Aluf, D. (2024, December 19). Syria Is Not One of China’s Strategic Priorities. Retrieved December 2024, from The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2024/12/syria-is-not-one-of-chinas-strategic-priorities/
Arduino, A. (2024, December 11). Damascus Falls: China's Middle East Dilemma Deepens. Retrieved December 23, 2024, from Think China: https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/damascus-falls-chinas-middle-east-dilemma-deepens
Fulton, J. (2024, December 18). What the Fall of Assad Regime Really Means for China. Retrieved December 25, 2024, from Atlantic Council: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/syria-assad-hts-china-future/
Kumar, R. (2024, February 14). Why has China Recognized Taliban’s Envoy to Beijing? . Retrieved December 22, 2024, from Aljazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/14/is-chinas-recognition-of-afghanistan-envoy-a-diplomatic-win-for-taliban
Shamim, S. (2024, December 11). Al-assad's Fall in Syria: what's a Stake for China? . Retrieved December 25, 2024, from Aljazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/11/al-assads-fall-in-syria-whats-at-stake-for-china
Standish, R. (2024, December 11). China in Eurasian Briefing: what the Fall of Assad Means for Beijing. Retrieved December 19, 2024, from Radio Free Europe: https://www.rferl.org/a/china-assad-syria-arab-spring-isis-russia/33235772.html
TheMunichEye. (2024, December 15). China's Strategic Shift following Assad's Regime. Retrieved December 23, 2024, from https://themunicheye.com/chinas-strategic-shift-following-assads-regime-collapse-6897
Tomorrow's Affairs. (2024, December 11). How much will China Lose from the Fall of the Assad Regime? . Retrieved December 22, 2024, from, file:///C:/Users/how_much_will_china_lose_from_the_fall_of_the_assad_regime_%20(3).pdf
Wang, K. (2024 December 11). China ‘Made Wrong Bet’ On Assad Regime In Syria – Analysis. Retrieved December 22, 2024, from Radio Free Asia: https://www.rfa.org/english/china/2024/12/10/china-syria-assad-reaction/
Zhao, Z. (2024, December 18). Syria-Xinjiang Link: China Warns Leaders in Damascus not to Threaten Security Elsewhere. Retrieved December 23, 2024, from SCMP: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3291393/syria-xinjiang-link-china-warns-leaders-damascus-not-threaten-security-e
Beech, H. (2013). China’s View on Syria Crisis: America’s “Hidden Motivations” Are Leading It Astray. Washington D.C.: TIME,2013.
Xinhua. China's vote against Syria resolution shows responsibility: expert. Beijing: China National Television,2012.
Swaine, M. D. Chinese Views of the Syrian Conflict. China Leadership Monitor, 4-6,2013.
UNCTAD.(2016) General Profile: Zimbabwe & Sudan, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, available: at: http://
unctadstat. unctad. org/ CountryProfile/ GeneralProfile/en-GB/716/index.html, Accessed on: 2018/08/09.
Solomon, C. (2016). Does China’s Silk Road lead to Damascus?, Global Risk Insights, available at: https://globalriskinsights.com/2016/07/doeschina-silk-road-lead-damascus/, Accessed on: 2018/08/09.
Chaziza, M. (2014). Soft Balancing Strategy in the Middle East: Chinese and Russian Vetoes in the United Nations Security Council in the Syria Crisis”, China Report, 50(3).
Raksorn, W. (2016). The Role of Russia, China, Iran and their Foreign Policies towards Syria on the Arab Spring, Journal of Advances in Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(4).
Abrams, E. (2018). What’s Behind Israel’s Growing Ties with China?. Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/expertbrief/whats-behind-israels-growing-ties-china
Sun, D. (2021). China's Partnership Diplomacy in the Middle East, Jonathan Fulton, ed., Routledge Handbook on China-Middle East Relations, New York: Routledge
Krasner, S. (2021). Sovereignty: Organized hypocrisy. Princeton University Press.
Telci, I., Rakipoglu, M. (2021). Hedging as a Survival Strategy for Small States: The Case of Kuwait, A Journal of foreign policy and peace, 10-20, 213-229.
Haacke, J. (2019). The concept of hedging and its application to Southeast Asia: a critique and a proposal for a modified conceptual and methodological framework, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 19, 375-417
Ye, X. (2020). Explaining China’s Hedging to the United States’ IndoPacific Strategy, The China Review, 20(3), 205-238.
Ciorciari, J. D, Jurgen, H. (2019). Hedging in international relations: an introduction, International Relation of the Asia-Pacific, 19(3), 367-374.
Vidal, I., Pelegrin, A. (2018) Hedging Against China: Japanese Strategy Towards A Rising Power, Asian Security, 14(2),193-211
Kuik, R. (2016) Light or heavy Hedging positioning between China and United states, Joint Us-Korea Academic Studies, 1-10/
Korolev, A. (2016). Systemic balancing and regional hedging China Russia relation, The Chinese journal of international politics, 9(4), 375-397.
Fangfei, J. (2019) The nature of Trump China policy:an evalution of the Us: Hedging strategy towards China, International Journal of International Relations, Media and Mass Communication Studies,5(5), 1-27.
Koga, K. (2018) The concept of “Hedging” Revisited the case of Japan’s foreign policy strategy in East Asia’s power shift, International Studies Review, 20, 633-660.
Benjamin, H. (2024). Every one's Friend, No One's Foe: China's Persian Gulf Hedging Strategy Since 1979. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from Durham University: https://etheses.dur.ac.uk/15606/1/HOUGHTON000877867.pdf?DDD35
Fulton, J., & Shuman, M. (2024, September 5). China's Middle East Policy Shift from Hedging to Wedging. Retrieved September 20, 2024, from Atlantic Council: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/chinas-middle-east-policy-shift-from-hedging-to-wedging/

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار