نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه مطالعات منطقه ای، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction
In 2024–2025, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s policies towards Afghan migrants entered a new and considerably stricter phase. The intensification of forced deportations, the reduction of legal protections, and the simultaneous implementation of so-called “voluntary” return schemes have raised important questions about the causes and consequences of these policies. Adopting an analytical-explanatory approach and drawing on the theoretical framework of “securitisation” in international relations, this study seeks to examine the domestic and external factors that have shaped these developments. The findings indicate that a combination of variables has contributed to the intensification of this trend. These include domestic economic pressures and unemployment, security concerns arising from regional developments and the recent Iran–Israel war, identity-based discourse and the politicisation of the migrant issue, and the lack of institutional coordination in migration policymaking.
The
results suggest that Iran’s deportation and return policies are shaped less by human rights principles and international norms than by geopolitical conditions and short-term security considerations. This approach may exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and increase international pressure on Iran
Method
This research employs an analytical-explanatory approach and uses the theoretical framework of “securitisation”. Data were collected through documentary research and qualitative content analysis of secondary sources, including official reports from institutions such as the Majlis Research Centre and the Ministry of Interior; news agencies such as IRNA, Tasnim, and Fars; academic studies; reports by international organisations and agencies, including UNHCR, IOM, the World Bank, and the World Health Organisation; and reputable international news sources.
Findings
The findings show that a combination of domestic and external factors has contributed to the intensification of deportation and return policies. First, socio-economic factors have played a significant role. High inflation, declining oil revenues, sanctions, a 20 per cent unemployment rate among young people, unemployment of 35 per cent among young women, pressure on public services such as education, healthcare, and housing, and competition over low-skilled jobs have all increased domestic pressure surrounding the presence of Afghan migrants. Second, security and regional factors have intensified the issue. The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, particularly the 12-day war of June 2025, together with attacks attributed to Israel on Iran’s military infrastructure, turned the presence of undocumented migrants into what was perceived as a “potential security vacuum”. Security institutions warned about the infiltration of sabotage elements and the possible exploitation of the situation by hostile actors.
Third, identity-based discourse and the politicisation of the migrant issue have affected the policy environment. Media outlets and some officials have portrayed migrants as contributors to unemployment, inflation, and insecurity, while presenting their return as both a national and a security duty. Fourth, the lack of institutional coordination has intensified policy inconsistency. The dispersion of responsibilities among the Ministry of Interior, law-enforcement bodies, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and security institutions has led to confusion and duality in migration policymaking. Fifth, weak support from the international community has further complicated the situation. International assistance, including support from UNHCR, covers only a very small portion of the costs of hosting several million migrants. According to the figures presented, more than 750,000 migrants were deported in 2024, while the number exceeded 1.5 million in 2025. Following the 12-day war, more than 508,000 people were deported in only 16 days. Iran has set a target of deporting up to 4 million migrants. Seventy per cent of returnees have reportedly been forcibly returned, and approximately one-quarter of them are children.
Volume 3, Issue 1, Spring 2026
Conclusion
Iran’s deportation and return policies are shaped less by human rights principles and international norms than by geopolitical conditions and short-term security considerations. The 12-day war with Israel acted as an “accelerating factor” and helped legitimise the security discourse surrounding Afghan migrants. This approach may contribute to the worsening of the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, including poverty, homelessness, and the suppression of women by the Taliban. It may also increase diplomatic pressure and international criticism directed at Iran and, in the long term, weaken Iran’s own social stability and domestic security. The study, therefore, regards a reconsideration of these policies as necessary, with greater emphasis on humanitarian and legal dimensions and increased support from the international community.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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