آینده پژوهی روابط ایران با جمهوری آذربایجان تا سال 2050 در ابرمنطقه راهبردی آسیا

The Republic of Azerbaijan, as one of the most important countries in the South Caucasus region, despite having historical, cultural and religious similarities with the Islamic Republic of Iran, has always had tense and less than desirable relations with Iran. These relations have been shaped by a combination of security, identity, economic and political factors, and numerous historical and geopolitical fluctuations have caused the bilateral future of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan to face a high degree of uncertainty. The importance of this issue increases when we consider that the Republic of Azerbaijan, due to its geopolitical location on Eurasian transit routes, access to energy and regional role, is of strategic importance not only for Iran but also for trans-regional actors. Therefore, a detailed examination of the relations between the two countries and their future until the horizon of 2050 is necessary in order to design and formulate Iran's national and regional policies based on forward-looking data and analysis.

This research aims to identify the threats, opportunities, and potential capacities of the Republic of Azerbaijan in order to secure the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and uses a combined theoretical framework of structuralism and Barry Buzan's Copenhagen Security Theory to analyze the relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan from a futures research perspective. The structuralist framework allows for the examination of the role of norms, perceptions, and social interactions in shaping the behavior of countries, while the Copenhagen Security Theory emphasizes the importance of human and political security in defining threats and opportunities. The combination of these two approaches provides a comprehensive and multidimensional approach to analyzing the future of bilateral relations and provides the basis for identifying possible paths and strategic scenarios.

The research findings show that Iran-Azerbaijan relations by 2050 will be influenced by a set of key drivers, including geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus region, the increasing importance of transit corridors and energy routes, the role of trans-regional actors and the changing balance of power, internal identity and ethnocentric variables in Azerbaijan, as well as economic and demographic developments in both countries. These drivers have different levels of certainty and impact, and their interaction presents a multi-track and uncertain future for relations between the two countries. In the short and medium term, the most likely pattern of relations is “controlled tension”, in which the two sides will avoid direct confrontation while maintaining a level of limited interaction and cautious diplomacy. During this period, cooperation will be mainly limited to specific economic and transit areas, and security disputes will be managed through diplomatic means. Identity differences and security concerns remain, but the ability of the parties to manage them prevents the emergence of widespread crises.

As we enter the long-term horizon, the role of geoeconomic logic and the importance of Eurasian transit networks will become more prominent. Azerbaijan’s need for alternative routes for energy and transportation, the relative decline in the influence of traditional players, and the increase in Iran’s economic capacities will provide the opportunity for expanding economic and infrastructure cooperation between the two countries. Although security mistrust and identity gaps will remain, intelligent management of differences will provide the opportunity for the formation of a sustainable competitive-cooperative relationship in which economic interests act as a lever to reduce tensions.

Accordingly, the future of Iran-Azerbaijan relations will move neither towards strategic alliance nor towards all-out confrontation, but rather in the form of a complex and multi-track relationship based on the management of differences and the exploitation of geoeconomic and transit opportunities. This trend demonstrates the need for proactive, scenario-based, and strategic policymaking for the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South Caucasus and emphasizes that a precise understanding of the drivers and uncertainties can help reduce security risks and increase strategic capacities in engagement with the Republic of Azerbaijan until the middle of the twenty-first century.