نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• علی دهقان

گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

نظام بین‌الملل در حال تجربه گذاری بنیادین از جهان تک‌قطبی به سوی چندقطبی است؛ روندی که در آن کاهش نسبی هژمونی ایالات‌متحده با خیزش قدرت‌های آسیایی همراه شده است. در این میان، کشورهای شورای همکاری خلیج فارس سیاست خارجی خود را بر مبنای راهبرد نگاه به شرق و توسعه روابط با قدرت‌های آسیایی بازتعریف کرده‌اند. این نوشتار با اتکا بر روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و کاربست چارچوب نظری رئالیسم نوکلاسیک، به این پرسش اساسی پاسخ می‌دهد که دینامیک‌های بین‌المللی و منطقه‌ای مؤثر بر فرایند آسیایی‌شدن اعضای شورای همکاری خلیج فارس کدام‌اند و چگونه این فرایند را شکل داده و تسریع کرده‌اند؟ فرضیه پژوهش بر این مبنا استوار است که آسیایی‌شدن خلیج فارس صرفاً یک انتخاب اقتصادی نیست، بلکه محصول تلاقی همزمان سه دینامیک بین‌المللی و منطقه‌ای شامل تغییر در ساختار قدرت جهانی در پرتو خیزش قدرت‌های آسیایی، نیاز به موازنه‌سازی امنیتی در برابر ایران و تعمیق رقابت‌های درون‌شورایی میان اعضا است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که روندِ آسیاگرایی، اگرچه استقلال عمل راهبردی و تنوع‌بخشی اقتصادی این کشورها را در برابر غرب افزایش داده است، اما به دلیل غلبه سیاست‌های انفرادی بر رویکردهای دسته‌جمعی، نه‌تنها به همگرایی بیشتر منجر نشده، بلکه شکاف‌ها و رقابت‌های درون‌شورایی و پیچیدگی‌های معماری امنیتی خلیج فارس را تشدید کرده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آسیاگرایی
• شورای همکاری خلیج فارس
• نگاه به شرق
• موازنه‌سازی
• ایران

موضوعات

• سیاست بین الملل در آسیا

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Asianization of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Light of International Dynamics: From the Rise of Asian Powers to Intra-Regional Rivalries

نویسنده [English]

• Ali Dehghan

Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Introduction
The international system is experiencing a fundamental transition from a unipolar world under Western hegemony to a multipolar order; a trend accompanied by the relative decline of US influence and the comprehensive rise of Asian powers. In this transformative context, the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which traditionally had deep security and strategic dependencies on the Western bloc, have redefined their foreign policy based on a “Look to the East” strategy and the comprehensive development of relations with Asian actors. This paper seeks to answer the fundamental question: What are the international and regional dynamics affecting the Asianization process of the GCC, and how have they accelerated this trend? The central hypothesis of the research is that this pivot is not merely a temporary economic choice, but rather the product of the intersection and synergy of three macro dynamics: the shift in the global power structure in light of the rise of Asia, the strategic need for security balancing against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the deepening of intra-GCC geopolitical rivalries.
Methodology
This research is structured using a qualitative approach and a descriptive-analytical method. The research data were collected through library and documentary studies. Data analysis was conducted utilizing the concepts of neoclassical realism across three levels: the macro level of the international system, the meso level of Middle Eastern regional dynamics, and the micro level of intra-GCC rivalries, in order to elucidate the precise link between global structural variables and the individual actions of the GCC member states.
Results and Discussion
The findings indicate that the Asianization process has been accelerated and deepened under the influence of three levels of dynamics:
First, at the international level, the economic, political, and normative rise of powers such as China and India has provided robust material and normative alternatives for the Gulf states. The declining security reliability of Washington has driven Arab elites to adopt a hedging strategy. Furthermore, the Asian development model—which is predicated on the primacy of economic growth, non-interference in internal affairs, and absolute respect for national sovereignty—perfectly aligns with the political structure of conservative Arab states and serves as an appealing alternative to Western normative pressures.
Second, at the regional level, Asianization has transformed into a smart tool for soft balancing against Iran. By linking the energy security and macro-logistical interests of emerging powers like Beijing and New Delhi to the stability of their own infrastructure, the GCC states utilize their diplomatic weight—such as China’s mediation in the March 2023 agreement—as leverage to indirectly contain, impose costs for insecurity, and limit Tehran’s regional sphere of influence. The GCC’s unhindered access to Eastern markets, compared to Iran’s sanction-induced limitations, has reinforced this balance in favor of the Arab capitals.
Third, at the intra-GCC level, identity rifts and geopolitical rivalries, particularly following the 2017 Qatar crisis, have acted as a powerful catalyst for the eastward pivot. The fear of isolation and the escalating competition among Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha to take the lead in attracting Asian capital and technology have driven these states toward unilateralism and bilateral agreements, thereby preventing the formation of a unified regional doctrine.
Conclusion
The Asianization of the GCC members is a multifaceted strategy in response to transformations in the structure of the international system, the imperatives of containing Iran, and internal tensions within the Council. Although the pivot to the East has significantly enhanced the strategic autonomy, diplomatic flexibility, and economic diversification of these countries against Western pressures, these achievements have been accompanied by a major paradox: the dominance of the members’ unilateral and competitive diplomacy over Eastern interests has come at the cost of severely undermining the institutional cohesion of the GCC. In the emerging multipolar order, the security architecture of the Persian Gulf will no longer be a unified bloc reliant on the West; rather, it will transform into a highly fluid and competitive network comprised of complex bilateral alliances with Asian actors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Asianization
• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
• Look to the East
• Balancing
• Iran