نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• مرتضی نورمحمدی

دانشیار گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

هوش مصنوعی به یکی از مولفه‌های محوری تحول راهبرد نظامی چین تبدیل شده و پکن با قرار دادن آن در مرکز نوسازی ارتش آزادی‌بخش خلق، در پی گذار تدریجی از دکترین «جنگ اطلاعاتی‌شده» به «جنگ هوشمند» است. این پژوهش با رویکردی کیفی و مبتنی بر تحلیل اسنادی، با استناد به کتاب‌های سفید دفاعی، اسناد اصلاحات نظامی و راهنماهای راهبردی چین، به بررسی چگونگی تأثیرگذاری هوش مصنوعی بر تحول راهبرد نظامی چین و پیامدهای آن برای موازنه قدرت در شرق آسیا می‌پردازد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که این تحول فرایندی تدریجی، انباشتی و مبتنی بر اصل ثابت «دفاع فعال» بوده و از میان ده راهنمای راهبردی نظامی چین، تنها سه مورد در سال‌های ۱۹۵۶، ۱۹۸۰ و ۱۹۹۳ تغییرات بنیادین ایجاد کرده‌اند. راهنمای «عصر جدید» مصوب ۲۰۱۹ نیز برخلاف تحلیل‌های رایج، تغییر ماهوی در دکترین ایجاد نکرده و بیشتر بازتاب‌دهنده اصلاحات سازمانی و سیاسی دوره شی جین‌پینگ است. همچنین شکافی میان ادبیات نظری که به سرعت از «جنگ هوشمند» سخن می‌گوید و اسناد رسمی که همچنان «اطلاعاتی‌شدن» را مرحله غالب می‌دانند، مشاهده می‌شود. ادغام نظامی ـ غیرنظامی، اصلاحات ساختاری، تشکیل نیروی پشتیبانی راهبردی و رقابت فناورانه با آمریکا از محرک‌های اصلی این گذار هستند. در سطح منطقه‌ای، هوشمندسازی ارتش چین، چرخه‌ای از رقابت فناورانه و امنیتی را در شرق آسیا برانگیخته و واکنش آمریکا در قالب محدودیت صادرات نیمه‌رسانا، سرمایه‌گذاری در سامانه‌های خودمختار و تعمیق همکاری با ژاپن، کره جنوبی، استرالیا و تایوان را در پی داشته است. نتیجه اصلی، شکل‌گیری موازنه قدرت فناورانه‌ای پویا میان چین و آمریکا است که ثبات منطقه‌ای را متأثر می‌سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• هوش مصنوعی
• چین
• جنگ هوشمند
• موازنه قدرت
• شرق آسیا

موضوعات

• سیاست بین الملل در آسیا

عنوان مقاله [English]

From Informatization to Intelligent Warfare: Artificial Intelligence, China’s Military Strategy, and Implications for the Balance of Power in East Asia

نویسنده [English]

• Morteza Nourmohammadi

Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI), as one of the most significant transformative technologies of the contemporary era, has not only altered the ways in which military power is employed but has also reshaped the nature of strategic competition and deterrence patterns. Over the past decade, great-power competition has increasingly shifted toward the domain of emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, making this technology a central component of military modernization efforts. In this context, China has placed artificial intelligence at the core of the modernization program of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), seeking a gradual transition from the doctrine of “informatized warfare” to “intelligentized warfare.” This transition aims to enhance decision-making capabilities, command, multi-domain operations, and combat effectiveness in increasingly complex future operational environments. Accordingly, this study seeks to answer the question of how artificial intelligence has influenced the transformation of China’s military strategy and what implications this transformation has had for the balance of power in East Asia.
Method: This study employs a qualitative approach based on documentary analysis. The research data were collected from official documents of China, including defense white papers, five-year plans, military reform documents, PLA strategic guidelines, and other defense policy documents. Furthermore, to analyze the conceptual evolution of China’s military doctrine and assess the effects of artificial intelligence on the structure and operational capabilities of the PLA, the study draws upon academic articles, specialized books, and authoritative domestic and international research reports.
Findings: The findings demonstrate that, the evolution of China’s military strategy has not resulted from abrupt ruptures; rather, it has been a gradual and cumulative process grounded in the enduring principle of “active defense.” An examination of China’s ten strategic military guidelines reveals that only three guidelines- in 1956, 1980, and 1993- produced fundamental changes in military doctrine, whereas the remaining documents were primarily designed to facilitate gradual adaptation to transformations in the security environment and emerging technologies. Furthermore, an analysis of the 2019 “New Era” strategic guideline indicates that, contrary to many existing interpretations, this document did not introduce a fundamental change in the core components of China’s military doctrine. Instead, it primarily reflects the continuity of the active defense principle and represents the organizational and political reforms associated with the Xi Jinping era. The study also identifies a significant gap between theoretical discourse and China’s official military doctrine. While the concept of “intelligentized warfare” has rapidly expanded among military theorists and in PLA professional publications, official documents continue to regard “informatization” as the dominant phase of military transformation and conceptualize intelligentization as a gradual and long-term process. The findings further indicate that the military-civil fusion strategy, structural reforms within the PLA, the establishment of the Strategic Support Force, and the impact of technological competition with the United States-particularly following the concept of the “Third Offset Strategy”-have constituted the most important institutional drivers of this transition. At the regional level, the study demonstrates that the intelligentization of China’s military capabilities has contributed to the emergence of a cycle of technological and security competition in East Asia. China’s development of military artificial intelligence capabilities has prompted a response from the United States through restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports, increased investment in autonomous systems, and the development of new operational concepts. This process has, in turn, contributed to deeper U.S. defense cooperation with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, increased military support for Taiwan, and intensified technological competition across the region.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that artificial intelligence is not merely a tool for enhancing the PLA’s combat capabilities; rather, it is gradually transforming the foundations of military doctrine, command structures, organizational arrangements, and operational concepts. Nevertheless, the transition from informatized warfare to intelligentized warfare remains incomplete and should be understood as a gradual process whose success depends on institutional capacity, technological advancement, and strategic competition with the United States. Therefore, the primary implication of artificial intelligence for the balance of power in East Asia is neither the emergence of a definitive Chinese advantage nor the continuation of uncontested U.S. superiority. Instead, it is the formation of a dynamic technological balance of power, in which sustained competition over artificial intelligence, reciprocal cycles of military innovation, technologically driven arms competition, and emerging deterrence patterns have become key determinants of regional stability and security.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Artificial Intelligence
• China
• Intelligentized Warfare
• Balance of Power
• East Asia